Now that falling rates are here, it's good news for Kiwi borrowers—meaning there's relief on the horizon for the many households stretched to their limit by high mortgage costs in recent years.
With two OCR cuts already under out belt, the expectation is that rates should continue to fall relatively quickly over the coming months.
With inflation back under control, and the economy in undeniably rough shape, the Reserve Bank's priority will be to get us back to a 'neutral' OCR—one which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy—as quickly as possible.
The RBNZ has said that, moving forward, a "neutral" level is around 3%, meaning mortgage rates should ultimately drop back and settle somewhere between 4.5% and 5%.
With that in mind, here are the key OCR dates to watch for in 2024 and 2025*:
2024
- 27th November – Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
2025
- 19th February - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 9th April - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 28th May - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 9th July - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 20th August - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 8th October - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 26th November - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
Need help making sense of interest rates?
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.